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Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Comments, March 31, 1997 Date: 01 Apr 1997 06:21:44 -0500 Well, these 2% down days, and occasionally up ones, are starting to get boring. Can't even set decent records for nr of points clipped, best we seem able to do is 6th or 8th. Why don't we just go for the first thousand pt day and get the pain over with quickly? Seriously, what's going on? Why such a continued correction? Or are we into a bear market already? The best single reason for such performance is that the investment community seems almost overnight to have realized, even as the Feds hiked the rates 25 bp, that another hike of at least 25 bp is likely at the next meeting. We seem to have swung violently from a stance of "there's no inflation, why is Greenspan warning of inflation" to "oh my god, the economic growth is soaring, inflation is coming, how much will Greenspan go up now?". We haven't entered into a real bear mkt until the fundamentals have changed, and that hasn't happened. We are still growing, cos are still increasing rev and earnings, actual inflation is still low while employment is still high, consumer spending is on the rise, but so is consumer earnings. Let's go back to basics and review some of the many factors that influence the stock market. Last night I posted some info from Commerce on Q4 corporate profits. I have previously mentioned seeing an increase in neg preannouncements, I have not attempted to quantify this, it is very subjective, however the market is punishing those who warn they will miss estimates. Yesterday's land mine was Applied Microsystems (APMC), which lost half it's value after warning of results under estimates including lower revenues. I recently mentioned Atwood Oceanics, yesterday Rodman and Renshaw (sounds like a radio talk show), a firm I have never even heard of, cut their rating on ATWD from a buy to neutral and cut earnings estimates, down goes the stock 5 pts or so. I hope nobody listened to me on that one, sure looked good at the time. FedEx put out a good preannouncement and still lost another pt and a half or so, maybe just mkt conditions, but no longer looks so hot on the chart. Technically, the only bright spot in the mkt last two trading days has been the volume. Neither session even suggested approaching record volume. And by comparison, NASDAQ is doing slightly better at holdings its ground than NYSE, and Russell 2000 surprisingly is doing even better despite the weakness in the financials group due to the latest rate hike and expectation of another one soon. The dollar remains in a trading range, as does gold, with the dollar near its current highs and gold at what is becoming a neutral level but one clearly not suggestive of renewed inflation. The bond market, so far, doesn't seem to be getting the influx of money fleeing the stock market that was to be expected when the yield crossed 7%, now up to 7.10%. Most of the action seems to be coming from short covering by those betting on the price to continue falling. When that didn't happen, they are closing out the short position. Virtually every technology group in my opinion is now in an oversold condition. Most financial groups are no longer overbought, altho they may fall further due the suspected upcoming rate hike. Health care groups took a beating, mostly on news. Columbia/HCA dropped nearly 4 and was the most actively traded due ratings cuts by two wire houses and concerns over a govt investigation into their business practices. In the pharmaceutical arena, Vivus lost over 8 after reporting that FDA inspection of their facility found deficiencies which will restrict production. Liposome was down nearly 3 after reporting results will be below expectation. The point in mentioning this is that sometimes stocks should go down, at least these had bad news which justified the move, thus remaining predictable to that degree. Yesterday was the end of the first qtr, but I did not detect any sig move of money by mutual funds back into the mkt over the past week (unless it was last Wednesday). I suspect most funds held the max cash they are allowed as of the close of the qtr, both to cover redeemptions as well as to jump back in if the mkt reverses its present course. For the qtr, the Dow 30 ended up back where it was on January 8, finishing up 2.1% for the qtr (135 pts). NASDAQ finished the qtr down 70 pts, over 5%. Ironically, NASDAQ is now down 12% from its high, Russell 2000 only 7.5%, with both setting their all time high on Jan 22. That was the day to sell, too bad we didn't have a crystal ball and know that was to be the last high for awhile. Which takes me to my final thought, this aging bull ain't raging no more, but it's not dead yet. I lost my source for daily reports on the Dow 30 PE compared to year prior, but last time I saw it the PE was less than a point better and that was about a month ago. I suspect with the correction to date, the current PE is running below a year ago. Of course, today we have a fear of slowing profits and even, in some cases such as the networking groups, slowing revenues on top of rising rates and inflationary pressures. Thus a comparison is only statistically useful, but still one more factor in asking whether this market is still overvalued. I have mentioned several times the excessive optimism in the marketplace. That has been corrected, and appropriately so, in the past several weeks. My best guess right now, based on nearly 40 years in the market, and nine years in the securities industry, is that the next several weeks will continue to be volatile, but that we are close to ending this bloodbath. We may still see another few 2% days, but I believe we are more likely to start seeing more upside movement with some money returning to pick up what are now a number of undervalued issues. On the other hand, lately I haven't been real accurate in reading this market direction, so take this with a grain of salt. tom w my opinions are strictly my own, and do not reflect my employer's, and are provided free to this august and select group upon request ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction Date: 01 Apr 1997 06:29:05 -0500 Thanks for the info, Neil. BTW, I'm in Miami, FL tom w ---------- > From: saltydog > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction > Date: Monday, March 31, 1997 10:50 PM > > Hi Tom: > In response to your inquiry about my background. I have a business > administration degree with a major in accounting from Robert Morris > College in Pittsburgh, Pa. I have been employed as an out-of-state tax > auditor for the State of Florida for 16 years. I do Corporate Income > Tax, Sales and Use Tax, Intangible Tax, Documentary Stamp Tax, Motor > Fuel and Special Fuel Tax audits on companies in Ohio and Kentucky who ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Some more mkt comments Date: 01 Apr 1997 06:54:44 -0500 Worth noting that most major indexes held the 50 dma, altho NASDAQ already below and continuing to fall. All indexes and oscillators I looked at showed oversold, and that didn't stop the fall (but then who listens to me, anyway, certainly not Garzarelli). Having looked at this, however, my opinion that the serious bloodletting is approaching an end is, at least, reinforced. tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Any opinion on any of these? Date: 01 Apr 1997 07:09:41 -0500 GDYS - EPS 78, RS rising at 98, a/c A, Timeliness A, funds at 46% and banks 15%; however growth rate neg 6%, vol strong (avg at 77K and doing easily double that for last sev days). Only a vague base back at 20, and with 50dma at 18.625 and price above 23, too late for entry here. Rev growing consistently (don't understand that neg growth nr) but earnings not as consistent due a one time item in Q2 last yr. Did 62 cents latest qtr, and 14 cents for yr ago Q1 so should be easy comparison. SRR - EPS 59, RDS 96, a/d A, Timeliness A, PE very high (146) for this mkt, funds 27% and banks 14%, inventory t/o only 3.4X, vol running close to avg of 503K but u/d vol still 2.4. Again very extended from any base or 50dma ASTSF - EPS 72, RS 99, a/d A, Timeliness B, debt of 42% (I mention this since debt is getting more costly), earnings have been erratic on essentially flat rev. Basing with vol drying up sharply. ACRT - EPS 98, RS 99, a/d B, strong growth rate of 58%, this looks more to me like a dead cat bounce, recent rise from $8 to 12 was on vol below avg, and you have recent overhang from mid Feb 97 at 17.625. 6.3 mil shares issued means thin float, limited liquidity if goes either way. No funds indicated. hope this helps tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] Any opinion on any of these? > Date: Monday, March 31, 1997 10:19 PM > > Just wondered if anybody had any experience with any of these? GDYS, SRR, > ASTSF or does anybody know why the strength ACRT has shown these past > extremely weak days? Thanks. > James ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles A. Wilmot" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Return Receipt Test Date: 01 Apr 1997 05:40:18 -0700 Jeff, This is an acknowledgement of receipt of your test message, if that is what you want. Chuck Wilmot At 11:35 AM 3/31/97 -0600, you wrote: >Fellow Canslimers, > >If this little test works, I will explain this little test later today. I'm >hoping it will help each of you get a bit of assurance that your posting to the >canslim list actually gets to the list. > >Jeff > > Charles A. Wilmot cwilmot@azstarnet.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 01 Apr 1997 7:38:19 CST I have a question on rate hikes - if any of you have any insights on this, please share with the group. This question is partly spurred by Tom's comment: > > Seriously, what's going on? Why such a continued correction? Or are we > into a bear market already? The best single reason for such performance > is that the investment community seems almost overnight to have > realized, even as the Feds hiked the rates 25 bp, that another hike of > at least 25 bp is likely at the next meeting. We seem to have swung > violently from a stance of "there's no inflation, why is Greenspan > warning of inflation" to "oh my god, the economic growth is soaring, > inflation is coming, how much will Greenspan go up now?". The Fed has a recent history of following up one small rate hike of say 1/4 point, by another, then another, etc. --- with maybe a 1/2-point hike built in. When lowering rates, the same pattern holds. I trust you all agree? The question is why? Why not just raise rates by a full point and get it over with - why prolong the speculation? Some could say that - oh its because Greenspan is waiting to see the effect of the first hike. That's not valid. The effect he's looking for won't be seen for several months down the road. Others could say, well... he doesn't know if he's going to continue. Well... as Tom pointed out - it'll take something VERY unexpected for Greenspan to NOT raise rates in a couple months. So he's ALREADY decided - so why not just do it at the last meeting. As investors, if you see something you don't like (say you think a stock is falling) - you don't start selling 20% of your position in 5 installments, right? So why would you raise or lower rates as the FOMC does in 5 installments? Any insights? Tom? Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rks@ticc.com (R.K. Stephenson) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 01 Apr 1997 07:17:11 -0800 In article , you wrote: >I have a question on rate hikes - if any of you have any insights >on this, please share with the group. >The Fed has a recent history of following up one small rate hike >of say 1/4 point, by another, then another, etc. --- with maybe >a 1/2-point hike built in. When lowering rates, the same pattern >holds. I trust you all agree? >The question is why? Why not just raise rates by a full point The short/simple answer is that the Fed wants to 'cool' the economy with incremental small hikes, as needed, vice 'shock' it with a large hike. A too large hike could send the economy in the opposite direction (down) rather than simply prevent it from heating up too quickly. -- RK ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 01 Apr 1997 08:21:32 -0800 > From: "David F. Cameron" > The question is why? Why not just raise rates by a full point > and get it over with - why prolong the speculation? Some could > say that - oh its because Greenspan is waiting to see the effect > of the first hike. That's not valid. The effect he's looking > for won't be seen for several months down the road. Others I'll take a stab at this one, but don't take this as the gospel truth... First, I don't think it is that clear how strong or how weak the economy is and what inflationary pressures are at any given point in time. There are always a few conflicting signals. Right now the CPI and PPI aren't showing that much inflation, but the housing and job markets, among others, show a strong economy and the conditions that produce inflation. Too great a rate hike will push the economy into a recession, no rate hike and it is too late to do anything about inflation when it does appear. Greenspan wants to tweak the economy in a way that keeps the economy humming along with positive growth, but minimal inflation, and that ain't easy to do, but he's done a very good job so far. Second, the stock market is a consideration in his thinking, as he has made clear in the last few months, and as it should be. What do you think the market would do if he raised rates a full point? All you have to do is look at what happened in the last week to answer that question. (And I think Greenspan would be out of a job within a day or two of raising rates a full point.) Does this answer your question, make any sense? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Date: 01 Apr 1997 12:12:36 -0600 If somebody has the time please go to http://investor.msn.com/news/news.app (Microsoft Investor Company News). Pull up the news on GRTR. After reading it, pretend you own GRTR with an entry point of 17 5/8. What would you do at this time? Thanks a lot. James P.S. I just found this and took down news on a lot of the issues I currently own. Knew MOST of what it told me but I did learn a few SURPRISING facts on some of the stocks I own. Hope the site will be of benefit to you also. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jim Knock Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Date: 01 Apr 1997 20:56:51 -0600 James, Your URL reference probably should have been: http://investor.msn.com/news/news.asp Jim At 12:12 PM 4/1/97 -0600, Brenda wrote: >If somebody has the time please go to http://investor.msn.com/news/news.app >(Microsoft Investor Company News). Pull up the news on GRTR. After reading >it, pretend you own GRTR with an entry point of 17 5/8. What would you do >at this time? Thanks a lot. >James > >P.S. I just found this and took down news on a lot of the issues I >currently own. Knew MOST of what it told me but I did learn a few >SURPRISING facts on some of the stocks I own. Hope the site will be of >benefit to you also. > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Date: 01 Apr 1997 20:59:01 -0600 Thanks. I'm not too used to all this internet and I got close. Well, if you looked it up and read anything what would YOU do if you owned GRTR under the circumstances. I manage several accounts and have gotten in at all different prices, the last being 17 5/8ths. I'm really in a quandry. Used to follow ASFC but quit when it started falling. It is really falling now. Do I really want to OWN some of it. Of course, at these prices maybe it would be ok. Oh well, guess that's what helps keep things exciting. James ---------- > From: Jim Knock > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com; canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: > Date: Tuesday, April 01, 1997 8:56 PM > > James, > > Your URL reference probably should have been: > > http://investor.msn.com/news/news.asp > > Jim > > At 12:12 PM 4/1/97 -0600, Brenda wrote: > >If somebody has the time please go to http://investor.msn.com/news/news.app > >(Microsoft Investor Company News). Pull up the news on GRTR. After reading > >it, pretend you own GRTR with an entry point of 17 5/8. What would you do > >at this time? Thanks a lot. > >James > > > >P.S. I just found this and took down news on a lot of the issues I > >currently own. Knew MOST of what it told me but I did learn a few > >SURPRISING facts on some of the stocks I own. Hope the site will be of > >benefit to you also. > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jim Knock Date: 01 Apr 1997 21:07:44 -0600 James, DUH? At 12:12 PM 4/1/97 -0600, Brenda wrote: >If somebody has the time please go to http://investor.msn.com/news/news.app >(Microsoft Investor Company News). Pull up the news on GRTR. After reading >it, pretend you own GRTR with an entry point of 17 5/8. What would you do >at this time? Thanks a lot. >James > >P.S. I just found this and took down news on a lot of the issues I >currently own. Knew MOST of what it told me but I did learn a few >SURPRISING facts on some of the stocks I own. Hope the site will be of >benefit to you also. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jim Knock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 01 Apr 1997 21:21:04 -0600 At 07:38 AM 4/1/97 CST, you wrote: >... >The Fed has a recent history of following up one small rate hike >of say 1/4 point, by another, then another, etc. --- with maybe >a 1/2-point hike built in. When lowering rates, the same pattern >holds. I trust you all agree? > >The question is why? Why not just raise rates by a full point >and get it over with - why prolong the speculation? Some could >say that - oh its because Greenspan is waiting to see the effect >of the first hike. That's not valid. The effect he's looking >for won't be seen for several months down the road. Others >could say, well... he doesn't know if he's going to continue. >Well... as Tom pointed out - it'll take something VERY >unexpected for Greenspan to NOT raise rates in a couple months. >So he's ALREADY decided - so why not just do it at the last >meeting. I think it is important to understand that the FED is not a government agency. It is the primary creditor of the US government, and markets the US debt, mainly to banks. It represents the interests of banks much more than the interests of the US government. Frankly speaking, it plays politics, lowering the interest rate, usually before major elections, and raising it afterward. It represents the interests of banks, who usually would like to see higher interest rates. The Fed is mainly interested in seeing people borrowing money and driving up the interest rates. It is interested in a stable and high interest rate for a nation of debtors. The stock market is actually a competitor. The stock market has no direct representation on the Federal Reserve Board. >As investors, if you see something you don't like (say you think >a stock is falling) - you don't start selling 20% of your position >in 5 installments, right? So why would you raise or lower rates >as the FOMC does in 5 installments? > >Any insights? > >Tom? Jim ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Comments (abbreviated) Date: 01 Apr 1997 22:22:51 -0500 Another 12.5 hr day, ten PM and just got home, so will snip my comments to some passing thoughts and post before I check my email, so at least I get some comments out before I crash. NAPM nrs this am again confirm more rapidly growing economy and increased inflationary pressures. Feds already being criticized for not acting soon enough. Funny, seems only a few weeks ago they were being criticized for acting at all to raise rates. Never recall a period when sentiment shifted so rapidly and violently. Neg preannouncements increasing, effects violent. Saw several more stocks cut in half today as result. Wrote down a partial list of ones killed today and others that announced real late, some past 7PM, that will likely be cut in two tomorrow, then went off and left list at office. From memory, FORE went from 15 to 10 and back to 13 during the day. FILE announced after the close, as did PSDI. IFMX lost about a third. Wish my memory was better. I now rate probability of a 25 bp hike at May meeting better than 65%, and see possibility of a 50bp hike. And no, this is not an April Fool's joke, today a very stressful day and failed to have time for a single joke. Been a while since that happened. Actually, come to think about it, it was only last year, but that was due to personal problems, not the market. The roller coaster action today was about the only encouraging thing I saw. There were clearly waves of sellers being met by waves of value shoppers. On NYSE, the value shoppers seemed to have won for the moment. On NASDAQ I'm not so sure, tech nrs were really ugly. 32 new highs to 297 new lows esp so. NY was more neutral with the Dow 30 at least closing up. Bond mkt so far doesn't appear to have started pricing in another rate hike yet, but sorely tempted to short the Treasuries. Late breaking news: In Japan, the Tankan (a business condition index) reported the first positive number since Nov 91. As result, govt intervention into the bank's non performing loan problem will likely remain loose (e.g. delayed) for at least several months. This started a run on the dollar (which had lost 2 yen in today's trading) sending it back close to current resistance at 123 yen. This was up a yen from NY's close. U.S. construction report also showed new strength, remember this affects both labor and material costs. It was up 2.3%, largest increase in a year. There was evidence of increasing labor costs, but no analysis just saw the headline. Will try to do my usual two hours or so of mkt review and post anything I find that is significant at least before I leave for work tomorrow, but my general feel is that the mkt is trying to consolidate here for awhile. After that, the earnings cycle will likely become the dominant factor for awhile, but as I have already said, the nr of neg preannouncements is troubling me. One example of this was a ratings cut by H&Q in which they also lowered their earnings forecast for the year from about 97 cents to around 19 cents (yeah, that's right, nearly an 80% cut, wish I had brought my notes home). tom w ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 01 Apr 1997 22:44:28 -0500 An interesting and well represented series of responses. I reviewed them all before writing this, and generally agree with most of the responses. I am also impressed and pleased to see so many understanding the Feds and their role here. I will disagree with several comments, however. First, to Jim Knock's response, I consider the Fed Reserve Banks to be a part of govt, as Chairman, so is Greenspan, he is nominated by the Pres and confirmed by the Senate, he is there with their sanction, but is not able to be "fired" in any conventional sense of the word. I also disagree that Greenspan is concerned about the market valuations. If he thinks he needs to change rates, he will. If the mkt tanks, then that is the mkt's problem, not his. He is responsible for monetary policy, not our trading habits. One answer everyone missed is that we have been now for several years at a point where Fed action was in the nature of "fine tuning" the economy. A point touched upon but where I will disagree in time frame is the effects of a change. From my experience, the Feds are working on modeling roughly nine months out. A few years ago it was about six months out and before that it was around three months. This is why they can make a change and so many can't understand it, the Feds are not reacting to the most recent economic report, they are comparing it to their model and what they expected. The danger right now is the sudden acceleration in growth shown by several recent reports. That is why I am already recognizing the chance of a 50 bp hike in May. If the reports keep coming out as strongly as they have been, then it should not be a big shock by then, but there will still be many who won't understand it or agree with it, mostly politicians. BTW, the one area where I think the Feds are politically sensitive is right before an election, thus they may either act early or wait till after the election to act. This isn't, IMHO, because they are politically motivated. Rather, it is because they don't want to become part of the political process and have their actions used to influence the outcome of an election. No flames please, just expressing my opinions based on a number of years trying to understand the workings and thinking of Greenspan in particular and the Feds in general from the outside. For the past two years, their decisions have actually made sense to me, so either I am beginning to understand or I just don't have the picture and am completely out of touch with reality. BTW some mkt commentators are already fishing for stuff to sell and looking over the historic actions by the Feds, pointing out that their average is five hikes once they start. I say again my opinion, the past is not an accurate guage to the future in today's marketplace. The Feds will act according to their models. Also, the tendency was to increase by 50 bp or more to kickstart the effect, then once the slowing economy was reached, to adjust down by 25 bp. Now, we are seeing increase of 25 bp since it was intended as an adjustment. Should growth indicators abate, then we may only see one more hike of 25 bp, but that is not showing yet which is why I am allowing for a 50 bp, then a cooling off period, and possibly another 25 bp after that in the fall. Beyond that, I think they will cool it at least for awhile, but time will tell. tom w ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes > Date: Tuesday, April 01, 1997 8:38 AM > > I have a question on rate hikes - if any of you have any insights > on this, please share with the group. > > This question is partly spurred by Tom's comment: > > > > The question is why? Why not just raise rates by a full point > and get it over with - why prolong the speculation? Some could ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Comments, March 31, 1997 Date: 02 Apr 1997 00:19:41 -0800 An interesting article from Barron to share with: http://www.barrons.com/articles/current/toc.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: OWENTIME@delphi.com Subject: [CANSLIM] thoughts on emerging sectors and chart patterns in choppy watters Date: 02 Apr 1997 00:28:44 -0500 (EST) The "zinger" like volatility is quite interesting and I'd appreciate any observations or guesses on what sector will emerge to fill the shoes of the tech. sector which may possibly need a rest. Will this mean more emphasis on "Dogs of the DOW" to insure a nice, healthy bottom line from here on? Alcoa? U.S.Steel? Silver? Boom in Gold after Bre-x blows over? Silver? One additional commet: Do any of you prefer flat tight bases to buy into vs. the cup with the handle in volatile markets to avoid dead cat bounces of the once high flying fliers with recently clipped wings in this hard to figure out shift in sectors driving this yet to be defined market? Comments? Hunches? Guesses? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] thoughts on emerging sectors and chart patterns in choppy watters Date: 02 Apr 1997 00:46:41 -0500 I prefer a well defined, raging bull where even if I am wrong I can still make money. After that, refining my choices using charts is more fun. Lacking that, and esp in this kind of mkt, I like watching a solid base form and watching for a breakout on exceptional vol. Finding a true cup and handle right now is nearly impossible, finding a solid base with excellent CANSLIM nrs (won't accept anything less than excellent) is a little easier. tom w ---------- > From: OWENTIME@delphi.com > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] thoughts on emerging sectors and chart patterns in choppy watters > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 12:28 AM > > One additional commet: Do any of you prefer flat tight bases to buy into > vs. the cup with the handle in volatile markets to avoid dead cat bounces ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Comments, March 31, 1997 Date: 02 Apr 1997 00:49:21 -0500 Nothing personal, but please don't connect my comments to anything Barron's has to say, even if they agree, in fact esp if they agree, with me. Haven't read the item yet, maybe when I am not so exhausted, but please, please, don't tie me in. If you want to post the article, start a fresh thread, please. I have a reputation, such as it is, to protect. tom w ---------- > From: GoldFish > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Comments, March 31, 1997 > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 3:19 AM > > An interesting article from Barron to share with: > > http://www.barrons.com/articles/current/toc.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Michael A Langston Subject: re: [CANSLIM] thoughts on emerging sectors and chart patterns in choppy watters Date: 02 Apr 1997 01:03:17 -0500 OWENTIME@delphi.com asks: > One additional commet: Do any of you prefer flat tight bases > to buy into vs. the cup with the handle in volatile markets to > avoid dead cat bounces... in general, i prefer flat base b/o's, even in more sanguine market conditions -- for some reason, a lot of folks who've just read o'neil seem to go into c&h mania mode -- the pattern does exist all right, but i find it a bit over-rated -- same for htf's (high tight flags) btw, here's an old war-horse whose canslim numbers are flaky right now, but w/ no debt, high roe, good earnings ests and insider buying: SDRC -- i mention it only because it is a HGS apparently trying to tighten up to a nice flat base here -- of course canslim plays are a no-no right now, but this one has shown in the past that it can fly -- although software stox are dead (group strength == 4), this *may* be one to keep a beady eye on if group speed picks up anytime soon mike langston ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GoldFish Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rate Hikes Date: 02 Apr ehsfvivk. botas de madeira para mulheres1997 07:24:02 -0800 pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net wrote: > > > From: "David F. Cameron" > > > The question is why? Why not just raise rates by a full point > > and get it over with - why prolong the speculation? Some could > > say that - oh its because Greenspan is waiting to see the effect > > of the first hike. That's not valid. The effect he's looking > > for won't be seen for several months down the road. Others > > I'll take a stab at this one, but don't take this as the gospel > truth... > > First, I don't think it is that clear how strong or how weak > the economy is and what inflationary pressures are at any given point > in time. There are always a few conflicting signals. Right now the CPI > and PPI aren't showing that much inflation, but the housing and job > markets, among others, show a strong economy and the conditions that > produce inflation. Too great a rate hike will push the economy into > a recession, no rate hike and it is too late to do anything about > inflation when it does appear. Greenspan wants to tweak the economy > in a way that keeps the economy humming along with positive growth, > but minimal inflation, and that ain't easy to do, but he's done a > very good job so far. > > Second, the stock market is a consideration in his thinking, as he > has made clear in the last few months, and as it should be. What do > you think the market would do if he raised rates a full point? All > you have to do is look at what happened in the last week to answer > that question. (And I think Greenspan would be out of a job within a > day or two of raising rates a full point.) > > Does this answer your question, make any sense? A wonderful post! I have the same question and this post does make a lot of sense for me. Thanks! Sincerely, Haw-Jye Shyu ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Adams" Subject: [CANSLIM] INVX - Breakout Date: 02 Apr 1997 08:26:36 -0500 I mentioned INVX a couple of weeks ago and would like to revisit with the group. Yesterday it appears to have b/o from the cup base it was forming. Price was up 2.50 and vol increased 165%. They also broke above the 50dam for the first times since breaking below it on Jan 17 or thereabouts. CANSLIM #s - 97/99/B GRate=75% Debt=2% GrpRS=53; ROE=31%; PE=21; Fund=9%; 30% off 52 high of 35 1/4; Closed yesterday @ 27.00 up 2.50 on 1.9mil vol. ADV = 400k Any comments would be appreciated. Jim Adams Maysville, KY USA http://www.cris.com/~jimdams/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] INVX - Breakout Date: 02 Apr 1997 8:10:37 CST Jim writes: > I mentioned INVX a couple of weeks ago and would like to revisit with the > group. Yesterday it appears to have b/o from the cup base it was forming. > Price was up 2.50 and vol increased 165%. They also broke above the 50dam > for the first times since breaking below it on Jan 17 or thereabouts. > > CANSLIM #s - > 97/99/B GRate=75% Debt=2% GrpRS=53; ROE=31%; PE=21; Fund=9%; > 30% off 52 high of 35 1/4; Closed yesterday @ 27.00 up 2.50 on 1.9mil vol. > ADV = 400k > > Any comments would be appreciated. > Jim Adams Maysville, KY USA > http://www.cris.com/~jimdams/ > I like INVX on the whole - good CANSLIM stock - but I still don't think the timing is right. One, the market is too shaky. Two, the breakout is good over the 50 dma, but the stock is still 20% off its January high. This would keep me from buying. As the brokerage houses say - I'd call this a "hold" (which for them means you should have dumped it earlier - for me it means - if you own hold on - but don't buy...) Dave Cameron BTW, you do seem to be picking better stocks than when you started, IMHO - or maybe my judgment is slipping ;-) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Microsoft Site Date: 02 Apr 1997 8:15:21 CST James, THanks for the pointer to the Micro$oft investor site - but very few of the companies I watch/own have news - they don't seem to do much on the small stuff. Even Yahoo has a link to stock/company news which tops this for my purposes. BTW, good to have you back - nice to see you're not scared away by the concerns by some about your motives in being in this group. Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Microsoft Site Date: 02 Apr 1997 09:40:43 -0600 I do not know your age but I will reply this way. Most of the people today would stand with their mouth wide open to see a deal ever closed simply on the basis of a handshake or on a man's word. Today, "people", want it in writing, on paper, signed in blood with all t's crossed and i's dotted and checked and re-check by attorney for loop holes. It's really sorta sad. All of that actually guarantees nothing. It is a good feeling knowing what you stand for and when others are "of the current world" - someone of "the old world" can only feel sorry for them. Stepped back for a while, thought about it, and then decided that I have something to offer that others can use, I can use some of what is discussed, and I am asking NOTHING for it - I came back. Thanks for your comments and if you ever would like my opinion on something just ask me. You stated a "better place" to get news? Where? Have a good day and be careful. James ---------- > From: David F. Cameron > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Microsoft Site > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 8:15 AM > > James, > > THanks for the pointer to the Micro$oft investor site - but > very few of the companies I watch/own have news - they don't > seem to do much on the small stuff. Even Yahoo has a link > to stock/company news which tops this for my purposes. > > BTW, good to have you back - nice to see you're not scared > away by the concerns by some about your motives in being > in this group. > > Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DELL and addition the investing Date: 02 Apr 1997 16:29:16 +0200 Tom, you wrote: >Sounds like a nice vacation, weather should be nice then. Bring a light >jacket cuz a late season cold front might sneak in and reach Orlando. Thanks. Last time we were there in March. It was quite cold then. People told me it was the coldest March in more than 10 years or so. So we'll come prepared. :) >If you think you may venture as far south as sunny Miami, let me know >and I will give you a phone nr and try to show you a little of the >area. It's really quite pretty. I know. I've been in Miami once. We did not have a lot of time so we saw very little. That's why I'd really like to come, since you obviously know where to go. I have tried to convince my wife and sister (who will be comming along this time) that this would be a very nice trip. But I couldn't convince them. They do not want to come because: - They have obviously watched to much Miami Vice: They are convinced crime is all over the place there. (I KNOW that is not true. I've been there.) - They argue that 5 city days is enough (that's our Orlando part). They want their 9 days on the beach. (I couldn't care less about the beach.) - They argue that the kids (2 and 4 year old) have more fun on the beach and near the pool than anywhere else. (Can't argue with that...) - We are having some friends fly in from Illinois for a few days, so that also limits the days that we have left. As you can see I can forget about comming with the whole party. But if you do not mind I'd like to come alone if I get the opportunity. I would have to drive from Fort Meyers and back in one day. Looking on the map, I guess that that is possible, but will it leave us enough time to visit a few things? Or would you advice to come another time. (I''ll be in Florida next time the organise the Siggraph there. That would be 1998 AFAIK.) --- Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 11:05:16 -0500 (EST) Bears are lovable creatures, as well. I tought I wasn't going to like them but they are as cute as any bull can be. 1. get a DG 2. get a pencil 3. look for a liquid looser pattern on a preferably high PE stock - double top or, - nice gradual downward trend established by AT LEAST two descending peaks (the more the merrier) - U/D small, A/D worse than C, timeliness worse than C, and other DG parameters as low as possible and all preferably decreasing 4. draw a line through the congestion areas of the price peaks 5. check whether you are about to hit an important support level (mov. avg, old lows; the best is if they already failed to give any support while they have managed to do so more than couple of times in the past, i.e. precedent) 6. check for volume-price divergencies (you want increasing volume peaks on decreasing price lows) 7. check where the present price is within the channel (you want it to be close to the upper line drawn previously). Also, RS line should be in a macro down-trend but with small up, or horizontal pauses whenever the price approaches the upper trend line. Look for such a pause for entry, after checking out the precedents. 8. check the volume (if the price is close to the upper line you want decreased vol) 9. basically you want the volume to confirm your estimate for the crowd sentiment (the trend) 10. put a stop above the upper trend-line at a place which would suggest that the down-trend is over 11. check intraday chart for the past few days for a micro-confirmation of the macro-hypothesis 12. sell short a position that would produce a loss of 2% of your total assets if the buy-stop gets hit. The closer to the stop you are, the bigger position you can take. A sort of a reversed canslim that has worked for me lately. I am not quite sure I included everything I use to make a trading decison but these should be pretty much the basics. This can be improved in many ways. Plenty of candidates in DG. Too bad this was my last DG from the trial subscription, and I promised myself not to subscribe untill I defend my thesis proposal. Btw, DG-online testers, does the online DG let you draw lines on-screen? What TA tools will it offer? Also, I like Datek better than Etrade. Much faster, half-cheaper, no-frills, and you get the same quote.com charts In case I decide to write a "Bear-CANSLIM" book some day (thanks for the idea, Craig ;^)) Copyright@Zoran Mitrovski Cheers, Zoran ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: focusads@wgn.net Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 16:54:48 GMT On Wed, 2 Apr 1997 11:05:16 -0500 (EST), you wrote: > >Bears are lovable creatures, as well. I tought I wasn't=20 >going to like them but they are as cute as any bull can be. > >1. get a DG >2. get a pencil >3. look for a liquid looser pattern on a preferably high PE stock > - double top or, > - nice gradual downward trend established=20 > by AT LEAST two descending peaks (the more the merrier) > - U/D small, A/D worse than C, timeliness worse than C, and > other DG parameters as low as possible and all preferably=20 > decreasing=20 >4. draw a line through the congestion areas of the price peaks >5. check whether you are about to hit an important=20 > support level (mov. avg, old lows; the best is if they=20 > already failed to give any support while they have managed=20 > to do so more than couple of times in the past, i.e. precedent) >6. check for volume-price divergencies > (you want increasing volume peaks on decreasing price lows) >7. check where the present price is within the channel > (you want it to be close to the upper line drawn previously).=20 > Also, RS line should be in a macro down-trend but with small up,=20 > or horizontal pauses whenever the price approaches the upper trend=20 > line. Look for such a pause for entry, after checking out the=20 > precedents. >8. check the volume > (if the price is close to the upper line you want decreased vol) >9. basically you want the volume to confirm your estimate for the=20 > crowd sentiment (the trend) >10. put a stop above the upper trend-line at a place which=20 > would suggest that the down-trend is over >11. check intraday chart for the past few days for a=20 > micro-confirmation of the macro-hypothesis >12. sell short a position that would produce a loss of 2% of your=20 > total assets if the buy-stop gets hit. The closer to the stop=20 > you are, the bigger position you can take. > >A sort of a reversed canslim that has worked for me lately. >I am not quite sure I included everything I use to make a=20 >trading decison but these should be pretty much the basics. >This can be improved in many ways.=20 >Plenty of candidates in DG. Too bad this was my last DG from the=20 >trial subscription, and I promised myself not to subscribe untill=20 >I defend my thesis proposal. Btw, DG-online testers, does the=20 >online DG let you draw lines on-screen? What TA tools will it=20 >offer? > >Also, I like Datek better than Etrade. Much faster, half-cheaper, >no-frills, and you get the same quote.com charts=20 > >In case I decide to write a "Bear-CANSLIM" book some day (thanks=20 >for the idea, Craig ;^)) > >Copyright@Zoran Mitrovski > >Cheers, >Zoran > ----------- Zoran, Please, Tell us more! In todays environment, this sounds much more appealing than trying to find the "Winners"! Besides this is the most exciting subject matter That I've read about in this group in a long time! Look forward to your response(s). Thanks, Jeffrey M. Bliven ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DELL and addition the investing Date: 02 Apr 1997 19:23:51 +0200 Sorry guys, this obviously was meant to be a private email to Tom. I wrote: >Thanks. Last time we were there in March. It was quite cold then. People ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 12:36:16 -0500 (EST) For further study of Bear-CANSLIM... Three perfect examples on just one page spread of the latest DG (pg. 158-159) PAGE (Paging Network Inc) PMTC (Parametric Tech Corp) PRXL (Parexel Intl Corp) Cheers, Zoran ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Brenda" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 12:07:27 -0600 Hasn't PMTC just been added to one of the indexes? James ---------- > From: Zoran Mitrovski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 11:36 AM > > > For further study of Bear-CANSLIM... > Three perfect examples on just one page spread of > the latest DG (pg. 158-159) > > PAGE (Paging Network Inc) > PMTC (Parametric Tech Corp) > PRXL (Parexel Intl Corp) > > Cheers, > Zoran ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jay Cliburn" Subject: [CANSLIM] Split info Date: 02 Apr 1997 12:28:48 -0700 On 24 March 1997, the MLHR made the following announcement: The Board of Herman Miller Inc , on March 18, 1997, declared a two-for-one stock split in the form of a 100 percent stock dividend to be paid April 15, 1997, to shareholders of record on March 31, 1997. If I buy 100 shares of MLHR today (2 April 1997) at price P, come April 15, will I own 200 shares valued at P/2 (where P is the share price at market close on 15 April 1997)? What about the "shareholders of record" clause in the press release? If I read the press release correctly (and I probably don't), traders who buy the stock between 31 March and 15 April will not participate in the split, but will simply wake up on 15 April having his or her MLHR share values cut in half. This *can't* be correct. Can it? I know that for "ordinary" dividends, the dividend "follows the share" until the ex-dividend date -- typically four days prior to the shareholder-of-record date. That is, the buyer of the share receives the dividend when it's paid, as long as he or she buys *before* the ex-dividend date. Between the shareholder-of-record date and the dividend payout date, the dividend "detaches" from the share and flows to the seller of the stock who sold during that time period, even though he or she no longer owns the stock. I'm confused by the split/dividend language in the press release. Can you set me straight? Thanks. -- Jay Cliburn | Space Dynamics Laboratory Computational Sciences Division | 1747 North Research Park Way Jay.Cliburn@sdl.usu.edu | Logan, Utah, USA 84341 (801) 755-4317 (voice) | (801) 755-4366 (fax) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 11:37:10 -0800 > PMTC was added to the S&P 500 as of close of trading today, replacing > PAC, which was acquired by SBC. The announcement was made on S&Ps web > page last night. The usual pre-announcement is 5 days. It's not lost > on me that this stock is up 1 3/4 on the news. > > ---------- > From: Brenda[SMTP:bks@lcc.net] > Sent: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 1:07 PM > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > > Hasn't PMTC just been added to one of the indexes? > James > > ---------- > > From: Zoran Mitrovski > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 11:36 AM > > > > > > For further study of Bear-CANSLIM... > > Three perfect examples on just one page spread of > > the latest DG (pg. 158-159) > > > > PAGE (Paging Network Inc) > > PMTC (Parametric Tech Corp) > > PRXL (Parexel Intl Corp) > > > > Cheers, > > Zoran > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Steve Subject: [CANSLIM] Bears and Spiders Date: 02 Apr 1997 12:31:33 -0800 Long time lurker, first time poster. Time for an introduction. Steve Grier San Francisco - home of 3Com park - believe me, everybody here still calls it Candlestick. Lawyer, 56, divorced, one kid in college. Mostly in funds, but have a trading account. O'Neil says that canslim will lose money in a down market. When the bear comes, I would like to do more than retreat to cash. Many believe that shorting Spiders (SPY-AMEX) is a good way to play. There is currently a large short interest in SPY. This would probably get very large if the bear bites. I know that SPY is a proxy for SP500 and that trading in SPY has no effect on the SP500, but is it possible that short covering on the way down could affect the price of the shares and disconnect it from the index so that it trades at a premium like a closed-end fund? How is it different from a closed-end fund in that way? What happens when more want to buy than want to sell at a given price? How can that not affect the price? I'm here to learn. If anybody knows about this, or has any comment on this as a bear market srategy, please post. Thanks Steve ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David F. Cameron" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Microsoft Site Date: 02 Apr 1997 13:47:30 CST > > I do not know your age but I will reply this way. Most of the people today > would stand with their mouth wide open to see a deal ever closed simply on Good point.... FYI I'm in my thirties... > Stepped back for a while, thought about it, and then decided that I > have something to offer that others can use, I can use some of what is > discussed, and I am asking NOTHING for it - I came back. Thanks for your > comments and if you ever would like my opinion on something just ask me. > You stated a "better place" to get news? Where? Check out www.merc.com > Have a good day and be careful. > James Later, Dave Cameron p.s Don't know 'bout PMTC being added to a major index, but IBD has profiled it extensively ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: [CANSLIM] - Value Line Online Date: 02 Apr 1997 16:47:19 +0500 A bit off topic, but Value Line is getting fired up to place its stuff on WWW. See http://www.publishingresources.com/valueline/index.html *----------------------------------------------------------------------* Robert Gammon My opinions are my own. In no way do rgammon@micro.ti.com I represent the views of my employer Using OS/2 Warp Connect, and a user of every version of OS/2 since v1.0 *----------------------------------------------------------------------* ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Hicks, Mike J (PB-mjhicks)" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 16:40:44 -0800 I have heard that PMTC will be added to the S&P 500 index to replace PAC (Pacific Telesis) since SBC acquired it. Mike Hicks >---------- >From: Brenda[SMTP:bks@lcc.net] >Sent: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 10:07 AM >To: canslim@mail.xmission.com >Cc: Zoran Mitrovski >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > >Hasn't PMTC just been added to one of the indexes? >James > >---------- >> From: Zoran Mitrovski >> To: canslim@mail.xmission.com >> Cc: Zoran Mitrovski >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM >> Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 11:36 AM >> >> >> For further study of Bear-CANSLIM... >> Three perfect examples on just one page spread of >> the latest DG (pg. 158-159) >> >> PAGE (Paging Network Inc) >> PMTC (Parametric Tech Corp) >> PRXL (Parexel Intl Corp) >> >> Cheers, >> Zoran > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] INVX - Breakout Date: 02 Apr 1997 21:38:53 -0500 Sorry but I still don't see the c&h, if you are referring to the short pattern over the past month or so, then the handle formed way too high. As to a b/o, could be, however today's vol slightly lower than avg. For a followthru, it wasn't. Timeliness is also a C. The recent increase in dividend is certainly encouraging, as are the last 4 earnings, and the upcoming report for Q2 ended 3/31 should be an easy comparison to last Q2 when they did 21 cents (last qtr, Q4 they did 42 cents) Watch out for the overhang up to 35.25 set in Jan. Hope you make some money on it, but be careful. tom w ---------- > From: James Adams > To: Canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] INVX - Breakout > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 8:26 AM > > I mentioned INVX a couple of weeks ago and would like to revisit with the > group. Yesterday it appears to have b/o from the cup base it was forming. > Price was up 2.50 and vol increased 165%. They also broke above the 50dam > for the first times since breaking below it on Jan 17 or thereabouts. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Microsoft Site Date: 02 Apr 1997 21:49:18 -0500 Hi James, and I second Dave's comments. This seems an appropriate point to mention to the group that James is my secret "internet source" of some of the stocks I have recently mentioned. After the blast he took, he mentioned some of his currents picks privately to me, I did my CANSLIM homework and found most were viable ones to at least look at. I posted the ones I liked best, so far of them Miller Herman (MLHR) has been the pick of the litter, held up well in all the downdraft, up a buck today despite the mkt. One can only wonder where it would be now in just a neutral mkt. As I told James, I will be the first (if I am fast enough) to move for his removal should his membership here be for commercial purposes. But so long as he is here for the same reasons as the rest of us, to learn and share CANSLIM ideas, then he definitely has a lot to offer. And since he does it for a living, like I used to do, he has more time to dedicate than most of us. Glad to see you out of the lurker status on a full time basis, James. Welcome. BTW, that's one of the unique things about being a broker, virtually every "deal" is conducted on a basis of trust, often over the phone, and often without the assets available in the acct to cover a trade. tom w ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Microsoft Site > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 10:40 AM > > the basis of a handshake or on a man's word. Today, "people", want it in > writing, on paper, signed in blood with all t's crossed and i's dotted and > Stepped back for a while, thought about it, and then decided that I > have something to offer that others can use, I can use some of what is > discussed, and I am asking NOTHING for it - I came back. Thanks for your > comments and if you ever would like my opinion on something just ask me. > James > > ---------- > > From: David F. Cameron > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Microsoft Site > > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 8:15 AM > > > > BTW, good to have you back - nice to see you're not scared > > away by the concerns by some about your motives in being > > in this group. > > Dave Cameron ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 21:55:20 -0500 Nice review Zoran. DG online does allow you to draw lines, but so far have not figured out how to print the chart with the lines still there. Otherwise the drawing feature real good and in color. No TA or other screening ability that I have found so far. I suggested it so don't know if it may be offered in the final version. To get the same info you get in the printed books, you have to use two screens. Offsetting this is apparently all charts are there, not just the ones in the book. And speed of loading and displaying the charts is very fast, faster than you would find flipping pages in the book. tom w ---------- > From: Zoran Mitrovski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 11:05 AM > > > Bears are lovable creatures, as well. I tought I wasn't > I defend my thesis proposal. Btw, DG-online testers, does the > online DG let you draw lines on-screen? What TA tools will it ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DELL and addition the investing Date: 02 Apr 1997 22:02:39 -0500 Can't argue with the family's logic. Given a choice of the beach, pool, or touring a big city (however pretty) isn't much of a choice unless you either hate water, or can't choose between the pool and the beach! A round trip from Ft Myers isn't worth trying unless you like torturing yourself. It's a lot longer than it looks on the map, even with Alligator Alley now four-laned all the way across. Let's try and catch it next trip over, maybe by then I will have won the lottery and will have visited you in connection with visiting my brother in Belgium. BTW, what's a "siggraph"? tom w ---------- > From: Johan Van Houtven > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DELL and addition the investing > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 9:29 AM > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Split info Date: 02 Apr 1997 22:11:24 -0500 When you think about dividends, it is critical to recognize the different forms of payment. When it is a cash dividend, you must own the issue using the "record date", when it is a stock dividend, you must own it prior to the "pay" date. The price will always tell you. Example: stock closes at $25 day of record date, paying a 25 cent div. Next day it will show a prior day closing of $24.75 (div deducted) and then trade from there. On most broker computers there will also be a symbol showing it as trading "ex dividend". If it was a stock div, then it will trade at the pre-div (split) prices until the div is paid, at which time you will be entitled to the extra shares. WARNING: if you are trading on margin, you often will have a call created as the shares are often not credited to the acct right away, the BD has to wait for them to be delivered by the tfr agent, and I have seen this take up to two weeks. Meantime, the position is valued at half its original value. Easily handled without putting in more money by just reminding the BD you are waiting for the extra shares to be delivered. tom w ---------- > From: Jay Cliburn > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Split info > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 2:28 PM > > > If I read the press release correctly (and I probably don't), > traders who buy the stock between 31 March and 15 April will > not participate in the split, but will simply wake up on 15 > April having his or her MLHR share values cut in half. This > *can't* be correct. Can it? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Iding" Subject: [CANSLIM] Yahoo ,,, earnings reports? Date: 02 Apr 1997 19:21:59 -0800 Interested in earnings report info from Yahoo ... did someone post they have this service now? How to access .... tried and everything I found was 'Pay' ... thanks ... John ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM Date: 02 Apr 1997 10:55:25 -0800 PMTC was added to the S&P 500 as of close of trading today, replacing PAC, which was acquired by SBC. The announcement was made on S&Ps web page last night. The usual pre-announcement is 5 days. It's not lost on me that this stock is up 1 3/4 on the news. > ---------- > From: Brenda[SMTP:bks@lcc.net] > Sent: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 1:07 PM > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > > Hasn't PMTC just been added to one of the indexes? > James > > ---------- > > From: Zoran Mitrovski > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Cc: Zoran Mitrovski > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bear-CANSLIM > > Date: Wednesday, April 02, 1997 11:36 AM > > > > > > For further study of Bear-CANSLIM... > > Three perfect examples on just one page spread of > > the latest DG (pg. 158-159) > > > > PAGE (Paging Network Inc) > > PMTC (Parametric Tech Corp) > > PRXL (Parexel Intl Corp) > > > > Cheers, > > Zoran > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Negative Pre-announcements Date: 02 Apr 1997 22:55:57 -0500 First, the ones I had noted yesterday, then stupidly left the notes at work, were: PSDI - today lost over 50%, down 15.625 FILE - today lost 4.875, down about 35% Ones that had reported during the day included FORE, which lost over a third before recovering about half of the loss, IFMX which lost almost a third if I remember right, and QKTN which lost 7.75 to close at 8.25. Today, I decided to be a little more scientific than just reporting on bad news. Saw earnings on INFS (InFocus), it jumped up nearly five pts today after pre-announcing its earnings (it had done a neg pre-ann previously) and indicating it would "only" miss analysts estimates by several cents. Saw Filenet (FILE) show positive territory for part of the day before losing another 7/8, some believe it will recover and become a possible takeover candidate. Saw WGTI down 50% on pre-ann, also another I didn't write down but was NASDAQ. Neg pre-ann after the close included DIMD, CNKT, MATH, and MKIE. There were others as well, but selected these as candidates for a little reviewing. Tonight, went to my best source, DG Online, (I love beta testing, hope this lasts forever, sorry guys, know some of you want to subscribe) and checked out the charts on all stocks mentioned above. Reassuringly, if you were following even the most basic of O'Neill's rules, you would not have been caught in one of these. Most had a RS in the low teens or worse, the two highest were 53 and 57. I think all had a/d of C or worse, same with timeliness. Most also had a ski slope chart, so even a trailing stop of 20% or more would have had you out long before the gap down resulting from the neg pre-ann. Just one more example of how following the rules can save you even greater losses. Hey Zoran, maybe there's another "shorting" tool for you in there as well. These 50% gap down days must really warm the hearts of a serious shorter. What's amazing to me is that virtually every day there is at least one stock being cut in half by pre-announcements. And as I found from this review, it is usually on a stock that has already been severely beaten down and punished. On PAGE: I have one broker (fortunately a "rich kid") who has convinced himself that PAGE is a good company and worth owning. He has been buying it since the teens (hit 7.625 I think, today). Now personally owns about 10,000 shares, don't even want to guess at his average but it's certainly over high 9 level, probably somewhere in double digits. After I had entered a number of orders for him, I finally found the time to look at a simple chart, and next time he brought me a ticket asked him what was he doing? He started telling me what a great co it was, blah blah blah, and I said just look at the chart, you have a clear trend, and it's not up. That conversation was just several days ago and about three dollars higher. Now why didn't I do the obvious and short the dog??? Goes to show what happens when you fight the tape (and trend). Much wiser to wait if you like the company so much, then buy it after a clear uptrend has been established. Yeah, you won't catch the bottom, it will cost you more, but your capital: isn't tied up so long; isn't at so much risk; and probability of making a profit vs a tax writeoff much greater. Nice to have CANSLIM
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