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Paul Hardisty, The CCTF Contributor's Blog

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“A Climate Change Risk Assessment for Everyone: Part 1”

07 Jun 12 | 592 comments

A Climate Change Risk Assessment for Everyone: Part 1

Added 07 Jun 12 by the CCTF Contributor | 592 comments

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Why The Science Doesn’t Really Matter

Anthropogenic climate change is real, and presents a significant threat to the future prosperity of mankind; or global warming is a myth, and moving away from fossil fuels will cost us a lot of money needlessly. The debate on whether anthropogenic climate change is real or not is in fact largely irrelevant in the context of whether action should be taken to significantly reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases. If we accept that we can never know the future with one hundred percent certainty, what really matters is this: what are the risks to humanity if climate change is real and we don’t act, and what are the risks if it isn’t real and we do.

An Uncertain World

Risk assessment is widely used in decision-making around the world, by a huge variety of organisations in almost every industry and business sector, as a way of managing uncertainty. The fundamental precept is that we can never foresee the future with complete accuracy, but we nonetheless need to make decisions that allow business and society to move ahead. In short, we cannot let ourselves be paralysed into inactivity simply because the future is unknown.

Sound familiar? This is exactly where we are with climate change right now. Do we move ahead and act, based on what we know now, or do we do nothing and wait until the science is settled and agreed to by all? (Of course the interesting thing about man-made global climate change is that by the time we do know everything for sure, and have managed to convince everyone, it will be far, far too late to do anything about it - climate change is essentially irreversible, in terms of human timescales).

How Risk Assessment Works

The basic risk assessment process goes like this: first identify the hazard of concern; second estimate a likelihood that the hazard will occur; and finally estimate the consequences that would result. In engineering, for instance, this system is widely used to determine how risks should be managed and what design changes should be made to mitigate risk. Risk mitigation can be achieved either through reducing the probability of occurrence (by changing the design, for instance), or by devising ways of mitigating the consequence (through responsive measures).

When designing a bridge, offshore oil platform, or a refinery, engineers consider a red-zone which encompasses risks with catastrophic consequences (death, serious injury, or significant financial cost are typically considered “unacceptable”), even if their probability of occurrence is low. Also in the red zone are risks of high probability and modest consequence. Risks that fall in the red zone must be mitigated – they are designed out and prevented from happening, or actions are taken to move the risk to a lower category. The yellow zone includes risks of modest severity and high likelihood, or high consequence and low probability. Management plans are put in place to reduce the likelihood and severity of these risks. The figure below is a risk assessment matrix typical of those used by industry around the world. This schema is used by many of the large industrial multinationals on a daily basis to help them make decisions about managing risk.

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Img/36496/0038661.gif

For example, if a pressure vessel at an oil production facility is deemed to have a high risk of exploding, and that this explosion would have a moderate possibility of killing a worker, this risk would fall in the red zone. Mitigation measures would be required, and the vessel would be replaced or upgraded. Action would be taken.

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  • A Climate Change Risk Assessment for Everyone: Part 1
Paul Paul Hardisty CCTF Contributor

Professor Paul Hardisty is Global Director of Sustainability and EcoNomics for WorleyParsons

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14 Oct 2014 - 12:56 BST

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Through Carl “J.C.Inch Pantejo, Copyright laws Might 2008<br><br>Author “My Friend Yu - The Prosperity Mentor,Inch Copyright July 2007. Pantejo - Y.N. Vurce Posting.<br><br>*The following tale is actually integrated within “My Friend Yu -- the actual Wealth Mentor: Guide 2," Pantejo - B.D. Vurce Posting. Launch Date: 08.<br><br>“[Life] Amazing! Is it not?..."<br><br>- Helping out for Extra Spend -<br><br>I was usually pretty “open-minded" regarding additional spend. What the Heck, I got'ta work anyway, correct? Why not really obtain a small extra, for just a small additional misery.<br><br>One period We offered with regard to Experimental Pay which included me personally carrying out a cold-weather objective “while wearing a core body's temperature information collection device."<br><br>The information had been required to engineer much better anti-exposure equipment with regard to tasks where hypothermia was a real danger; also to design nutritionally sound, cold-weather MRE's (foods, prepared to consume) personalized towards the size as well as exercise of every owner.<br><br>In reality, the actual “...with the primary body's temperature data collection device" was the official way of saying that I as well as my whole group were doing our work in an exceedingly cold region Along with RECTAL THERMOMETERS FIRMLY LODGED UP The Grows As well as ANCHORED Presently there BY A blow up Light bulb AT THE END OF EACH PROBE!<br><br>Needless to say, it had been an inconvenience to take a get rid of -- as well as instead painful if you didn't remember in order to flatten the actual bulb!<br><br>Another time, outlet stone island http://www.eventdotorg.co.uk

14 Oct 2014 - 13:09 BST

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We certainly don't want to blow exclusive onsite pc repair business on account of what bitter knowledge We confronted in the past. stone island http://www.eventdotorg.co.uk

14 Oct 2014 - 13:43 BST

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There are millions of people who would love to be able to watch live soccer on the Internet. This is because sometimes it is hard to catch up on the games due to late working hours or a business trip. Wouldn't it be great to have an alternative to the conventional satellite or cable TV services?<br><br>And you actually can watch live soccer on the Internet! In fact, you have some options here, which can be categorized into three general groups.<br><br>1. Direct Streaming<br><br>There are websites which stream live soccer games. Many of them are free cost - what luck, you might say. However, it is quite an annoying experience to watch soccer games on these websites, because the streaming is not smooth, and both picture and sound get interrupted several times a minute.<br><br>To ensure good streaming similar to what you see on a TV screen, your Internet connection should be very speedy (dial-ups stand no chance here) and the server of the website should be able to handle many viewers at the same time. Free sites normally cannot afford powerful servers to deliver great quality irrespective of the number of visitors. outlet stone island http://www.eventdotorg.co.uk

14 Oct 2014 - 14:16 BST

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These laws govern all our life (and also the remaining Universe). They operate completely as well as with out bias -- constantly.<br><br>- Accumulated Returns -<br><br>Good deeds always lead to some type of goodness coming back to a person. In fact, regardless of whether negative or positive, the end result which “rebounds" back in the world will often be many times larger than that which was at first “thrown" available.<br><br>Here's the simple reason behind this particular “multiplied rebound" phenomena:<br><br>When you behave or even believe, the results of your actions as well as ideas spread out with the world such as the ripples created whenever a stone is actually tossed in to calm water. As your effects journey to the outside into the universe, these people contact everything in its route. Consequently, those impacted -- from the furthest towards the nearest -- react using their personal “ripples" back again towards you.<br><br>Each response is added to the group of “returning ripples;" eventually developing right into a “returning wave. stone island http://www.guadagnoedilizia.it










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